Truth be told, Sinologists have rarely been able to predict what China will do ten years in the future. So before anybody believes what a famous Sinologist predicts today you might want to compare current events to what they predicted ten years ago. In my experience, those who have really studied classical Chinese history never say “We were lied to, this was totally unexpected.” Real historians have read the documents that clearly described the goals of today’s China over a decade ago. XJP had a very clear paper trail when he became president and many famous Sinologists simply chose to ignore it until it blew up in their faces. Some now admit how badly they screwed up. In any event, read them today at your peril.
Seems a notable omission to leave out the relationship with Liu He ❓- did he not impact your/US thinking on China from 2008 to last year❓Wondered also about internal US dynamics; people like Kent Campbell; Chas Freeman & other usual suspects - e.g, difficulties in managing political level; esp domestic interests which make long term policy engagement a major challenge; extent to which win/lose, zero sum policy approach; then pivot to Asia to reinforce escalation dominance strategy of America Inc (Linda Weiss) that saw containment & decoupling policy plus ubiquitous sanctions on more than 1000 Chinese firms a reasonable response to rise of Chinese competition as part of overall strength of Asia❓
An interesting and timely release. Susan Shirk is spot on that Xi’s grip is less secure than many imagine despite the massive surveillance and terror machinery. Discontent can erode stealthily. Authoritarian regimes are seemingly stable until … they aren’t. And it can be sudden. A bit like the party game with wood blocks. Someone eventually pulls out a block that beings the whole pile down. And in China that could be something seemingly trivial that escalates in ways that unloosens various bits of Xi’s edifice of control. It’s probably some such fear that fuels his remotely obsession with security and repression of any dissent.
Truth be told, Sinologists have rarely been able to predict what China will do ten years in the future. So before anybody believes what a famous Sinologist predicts today you might want to compare current events to what they predicted ten years ago. In my experience, those who have really studied classical Chinese history never say “We were lied to, this was totally unexpected.” Real historians have read the documents that clearly described the goals of today’s China over a decade ago. XJP had a very clear paper trail when he became president and many famous Sinologists simply chose to ignore it until it blew up in their faces. Some now admit how badly they screwed up. In any event, read them today at your peril.
Seems a notable omission to leave out the relationship with Liu He ❓- did he not impact your/US thinking on China from 2008 to last year❓Wondered also about internal US dynamics; people like Kent Campbell; Chas Freeman & other usual suspects - e.g, difficulties in managing political level; esp domestic interests which make long term policy engagement a major challenge; extent to which win/lose, zero sum policy approach; then pivot to Asia to reinforce escalation dominance strategy of America Inc (Linda Weiss) that saw containment & decoupling policy plus ubiquitous sanctions on more than 1000 Chinese firms a reasonable response to rise of Chinese competition as part of overall strength of Asia❓
C Wilson, Ottawa
An interesting and timely release. Susan Shirk is spot on that Xi’s grip is less secure than many imagine despite the massive surveillance and terror machinery. Discontent can erode stealthily. Authoritarian regimes are seemingly stable until … they aren’t. And it can be sudden. A bit like the party game with wood blocks. Someone eventually pulls out a block that beings the whole pile down. And in China that could be something seemingly trivial that escalates in ways that unloosens various bits of Xi’s edifice of control. It’s probably some such fear that fuels his remotely obsession with security and repression of any dissent.